CrisisWatch Search Results

Normalisation process slowed due to ongoing political turmoil in Pakistan. India said it would maintain troop levels along border of Jammu and Kashmir, citing increase in cross-border militancy.

• “India to maintain troop levels on Kashmir border with Pakistan”, Bloomberg, 25 June 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Talks in Islamabad 17-18 May on Sir Creek boundary dispute failed to produce any agreement after exchange of survey maps. General strike observed 21 May in Indian Kashmir to mark anniversary of killings of 2 separatist leaders. Several separatists and Indian troops killed in clashes along Line of Control.

• “India, Pak made progress on Kashmir: Musharraf”, The Hindu, 19 May 2007.
• “Five killed in clashes in Indian Kashmir”, AFP, 9 May 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Indian authorities said violence in India-controlled Jammu & Kashmir fell two-thirds in 2006 to lowest level in 17 years. No agreement in 11th round of talks between New Delhi and Islamabad on Siachen Glacier issue. New Delhi hosted 24 April roundtable on Kashmir, but separatist parties stayed away as talks skirted subject of territory. Thousands protested in Srinagar 16 April in response to continued civilian casualties at hands of Indian police forces.

• "Little hope ahead of Kashmir-Delhi peace talks”, Reuters, 24 Apr. 2007.
• “Thousands protest civilian deaths in Indian Kashmir”, Reuters, 16 Apr. 2007.
• “Kashmir violence falls to all time low –official”, Reuters, 1 Apr. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Hizbul Mujahideen member “Yaseen” killed by Indian forces 2 March. As protests continued over security force killings, New Delhi set up expert panel to consider reduction in Kashmir troop levels and revision to Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act that grants broad powers of detention. Defence ministers’ talks on Siachen glacier due 6 April in Rawalpindi.

• “India considers Kashmir troops cut as violence eases”, AlertNet, 23 Mar. 2007.
• “Kashmir TV channels suspended after militant threats”, AlertNet, 5 Mar. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

India and Pakistan proceeded with dialogue process despite 18 February bombing of Lahore-Delhi train that killed over 60. Nuclear risk reduction pact signed during Pakistan FM Mahmood Kasuri’s visit to Delhi 21 February, but terror attack, attributed by some Indian security officials to Pakistan-based jihadis, overshadowed visit. India said Pakistan must end all “cross-border terrorism” if dialogue process to succeed. In shift, head of separatist APHC moderate faction Umar Farooq called for militants to support political solution, but said Indian troop withdrawal should be first move. Strike in Srinagar 6 February shut down city in protest at recent uncovering of Indian Army and police role in at least 5 “encounter killings” of civilians; 8 police arrested. Lashkar-e-Tayyaba commander Abu Talha reported killed by Indian police 28 February.

• “Indian army and police tied to Kashmir killings”, New York Times, 6 Feb. 2007.
• “Support peace process: Mirwaiz”, Hindu, 2 Feb. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Continued engagement between Delhi and Islamabad, but no concrete progress on Kashmir sticking points. Indian FM Pranab Mukherjee reported “positive” visit to Islamabad 13 January but PM Singh said movement on Siachen Glacier dispute would be “premature”. Next talks due in March.

• “India and Pakistan set up crisis panel”, Financial Times, 14 Jan. 2007.
• “Mirwaiz supports Musharraf’s ideas”, Dawn, 18 Jan. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Pakistan President Musharraf mooted plan for autonomous Kashmir in exchange for Indian concessions. Plan would see Pakistan give up territorial claim and referendum demand if India accepted granting region autonomy within existing territorial borders, joint phased military withdrawal allowing "soft border" with free movement across Line of Control, and "joint supervisory mechanism" to govern cross-border issues. Musharraf ruled out full independence. PM Singh responded indirectly with messages of peace, but Delhi appears reluctant to move forward without Pakistani efforts to halt cross-border terrorist attacks. U.S. President Bush signed law 18 December allowing U.S. nuclear sales to India; no sales allowed to Pakistan.

• “Pak: Will give up Kashmir claim if four point formula accepted”, NDTV, 5 Dec. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan 14-16 November yielded little progress on Kashmir sticking points. Both countries agreed to implement mechanism to improve communication on anti-terrorism measures; agreement not expected to produce much shared intelligence or policy, but sign that normalisation process not derailed by July Mumbai train bombings.

• “S Asia rivals in anti-terror move”, BBC, 15 Nov. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Mixed messages over Delhi-Islamabad dialogue following India’s implication of Pakistani security services in Mumbai train bombings. First talks since July bombings due 13 November. Newly appointed foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee said peace with Pakistan desirable and that India would share “certain” evidence over bombings with Islamabad, while PM Singh warned 18 October that further dialogue would be strained unless Pakistan took greater action on terrorism. Violence escalated in Srinagar with series of clashes between separatists and Indian security forces: 10 killed in 24-hour gun battle 5 October after attack on security camp, claimed by Al-Mansurian militants. After string of protests in Indian-controlled Kashmir, Indian government postponed execution of militant Kashmiri Afzal Guru pending review of clemency appeal.

• “Indo-Pak relations: Diplomacy, sort of”, ISN, 23 Oct. 2006.
• “India will burn if rebel hanged says Kashmiri leader”, AlertNet, 14 Oct. 2006.
• “Bomb-blast diplomacy”, Economist, 5 Oct. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Indian PM Singh and Pakistani President Musharraf agreed at Havana Non-Aligned Summit 16 September to resume normalisation talks, and set up joint mechanism against terror; foreign secretary-level discussions in Delhi to be first step. Singh said process success would depend on Pakistan’s efforts to end cross-border attacks. Talks jeopardised 29 September when Mumbai police alleged Pakistani intelligence service ISI assisted Lashkar-e-Tayyaba group in planning July train bombings. Hizb-ul-Mujahideen militants and government failed to agree Ramadan ceasefire, violence continued in and around Srinagar: 7 killed on 25 September.

• “India’s police say Pakistan helped plot July train bombings”, New York Times, 30 Sept. 2006.
• “South Asia rivals to resume talks”, BBC, 16 Sept. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

India and Pakistan engaged in tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomats in moves reminiscent of pre-normalisation process antagonism. Clashes continued throughout month with surge of grenade attacks in run up to 15 August Indian independence day. 5 Pakistan-based militants killed in attempt to cross Line of Control 16 August. Pakistan alleged violations of Line of Control ceasefire by Indian forces. Further 9 killed, including 3 soldiers, in security operations in Kulgam-Qazigund area. Lashkar-e-Tayyaba militant allegedly linked to 11 July Mumbai bombings charged with establishing terror network in Mumbai.

• “Pak protests India’s violation of ceasefire”, The News, 27 Aug. 2006.
• “Six killed in violence in Jammu & Kashmir”, Hindustan Times, 17 Aug. 2007.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

India halted normalisation process with Pakistan after 11 July Mumbai bombings. Further progress conditional on tangible Pakistani moves against banned jihadi groups like Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Hizbul Mujihideen. India captured Mudassir Gojri, top militant commander of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba blamed for numerous tourist killings including July attacks that killed 8. Suspected militants shot dead 4 Hindus in Indian Kashmir 13 July. Sakina Itoo, leader of National Conference party, survived 8 July grenade attack in which 5 supporters killed. New government installed in Pakistani-administered Kashmir after elections opposition parties claimed were rigged. Sardar Attiq Ahmed Khan, head of All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference, sworn in as PM 24 July.

• “India, Pakistan: peace set back again”, ISN, 26 July 2006.
• “India asks Pak to deport Salahuddin, Dawood”, Outlook India, 21 July 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Briefing N°51, India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace, 15 June 2006.

Sporadic violence continued throughout Indian-controlled Kashmir. 8 militants reportedly killed attempting to cross into Indian controlled territory 30 June. Previously militants attacked villagers in Udhampur district, killing 1 and mutilating 2 on suspicion of being informers. 8 lndian labourers from Bihar shot dead by suspected militants in Anantnag district. All Parties Hurriyat Conference called protest against alleged desecration of Koran and mosque by Indian security forces: 2 killed in demonstrations. Second bus service began linking Indian and Pakistani controlled areas but mutual accusations over failed prisoner swap dampened optimism.

• “Eight killed in Kashmir violence”, Dawn, 27 June 2006.
• “Second Kashmir bus service begins”, BBC, 20 June 2006.

Violence continued in Indian-controlled Kashmir in apparent reaction to positive talks between Indian PM Singh and main moderate faction of APHC that set up unprecedented framework for future talks. Violence increased before 24-25 May roundtable in Srinagar with grenade attacks and suicide bomber killing 15. Militants attacked Congress party rally in Srinagar while warning given to APHC of “dire consequences” for participation in roundtable prompting APHC withdrawal 22 May. Police reportedly found bodies of 4 Muslims in Baramulla district, allegedly killed for being police informers. Separate India/Pakistan talks on Siachen glacier and Sir Creek border disputes ended without breakthrough.

• “Kashmir attack overshadows rivals’ anti-terror talk”, AlertNet, 31 May 2006.
• “Indian PM sees ‘ray of hope’ after Kashmir talks”, The Scotsman, 25 May 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Upsurge in attacks by separatists in first major violence since November 2005. 22 Hindu villagers killed by militants in Doda district 1 May. Wave of Srinagar grenade attacks 14 April and gunbattles in Srinagar and Jammu and Kashmir killed at least 17. Kashmiri radical separatist groups claimed responsibility. Senior opposition politician Ali Mohammad Naik wounded and 2 guards killed 17 April in attack claimed by Islamic Front militants. By-elections held for 4 seats for Jammu and Kashmir state assembly. 3 politicians reportedly killed by insurgents. Indian PM Manmohan Singh to meet Kashmiri separatist leaders in New Delhi early May.

• “Police: Suspected rebels kill 22 Hindus”, The Guardian, 1 May 2006.
• “Blasts as voting begins in J&K”, AFP, 24 Apr. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

India and Pakistan announced schedule for third round of composite dialogue. Meetings began 28 March and will conclude June followed by 2 high-level review sessions July. Pakistani accusations of Indian inaction on Kashmir and Indian calls for end to cross-border terrorism soured atmosphere. Indian PM Manmohan Singh made conciliatory speech while inaugurating bus service 24 March. Clashes continued between security forces and militants while Lashkar-e-Kahar militants claimed responsibility for bombings in Indian Uttar Pradesh state.

• “Kashmir militants ready for conditional truce-report”, AlertNet, 30 Mar. 2006.
• “Pakistan welcomes India overture”, BBC, 24 Mar. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Confidence-building measures continued with resumption of train service across Thar desert after 40-year suspension. Indian PM Manmohan Singh called conference of Indian Kashmiri politicians and separatist leaders for 25 February; many declined calling talks “premature”. Strikes in Indian-controlled Kashmir followed fatal shooting of 4 boys 22 February, apparently in crossfire between security forces and separatists, while further separatist violence killed 5 next day. Clashes erupted between Buddhists and Muslims in Ladakh 8 February, after torn pages of Koran found near mosque in Kargil. India reportedly withdrew 5,000 troops from Indian-controlled Kashmir in response to improving security situation.

• “Separatists boycott talks on Kashmir”, Dawn, 25 Feb. 2006.
• “Farooq Abdullah won’t attend Kashmir roundtable”, Times of India, 21 Feb. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and Pakistani counterpart, Riaz Mohammad Khan, met in Delhi for third round of bilateral normalisation dialogue 17 January and agreed to sustain process. Cross-border travel links increased with additional bus and truck services; further bus link between Sikh holy cities of Amritsar and Nankana Sahib, and rail link between Rajasthan state and Sindh province to start in February. Indian troops reportedly shot dead senior leader of militant group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba responsible for series of blasts in New Delhi in October 2005. Clashes between Indian security forces and militants crossing Line of Control into Indian-controlled territory killed 14.

• “‘Nine killed’ in Kashmir battle”, BBC, 28 Jan. 2006.
• “Pakistan and India launch new peace bus”, AlertNet, 20 Jan. 2006.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Latest confidence-building measure, “Punjab Express” bus between Lahore and Amritsar, introduced 11 December. Next round of official-level talks to discuss peace and security issues, including Kashmir, due January. Violence continued with 9 killed in clashes near Srinagar 14 December and Rajouri district of Jammu 16 December.

• “Soldiers ‘kill Kashmir militants’”, BBC, 14 Dec. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/ Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

24 Indian Kashmiris became first in 60 years to cross to Pakistani side but growing dissatisfaction more not allowed after 8 October earthquake. Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz and Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh discussed normalisation process in side meeting at SAARC summit. All 5 promised crossing-points officially opened. 3 high-profile Srinagar attacks killed 14, 16-23 November.

• “Fifth Kashmir border point opens”, BBC, 16 Nov. 2005.
• “Aziz discusses peace process with Singh - Free trade linked to progress on Kashmir”, ReliefWeb, 12 Nov. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/ Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Region devastated by 8 October earthquake; over 55,000 killed (36,000 in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir) and 3 million homeless. India and Pakistan agreed to open Line of Control dividing Kashmir from 7 November to allow relief supplies and survivors to cross. Truce called by main Muslim rebel alliance in India-controlled Kashmir, United Jihad Council, but sporadic violence continued. Junior Education Minister of India-controlled Kashmir and 2 bodyguards killed 18 October in Srinagar by Islamic Front militants. Indian and Pakistani FMs signed security cooperation agreement 3 October in Islamabad: includes ballistic missile test notification pledge and hotline between maritime security forces. Agreement also reached to resolve dispute over frontier Siachen glacier in Kashmir within 3 months.

• “Kashmir deal raises hopes - and fears”, BBC, 30 Oct. 2005.  
• “Aftershocks and afterthoughts in Kashmir”, The Economist, 20 Oct. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79, India/ Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June, 2004.

Talks between Indian PM Singh and Pakistani President Musharraf on sidelines of UN General Assembly reaffirmed commitment to “peaceful settlement of all issues” but failed to advance stalled negotiations. Singh held talks with moderate faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference separatist alliance 5 September; vowed to reduce Indian troops if violence and infiltration end. Politicians from Indian- and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir held direct talks: separatist leaders from both sides yet to be allowed to join official peace process. Deadly clashes continued between Indian security forces and militants in Indian-administered Kashmir. Foreign ministers of Pakistan and India to meet 3 October.

• “Pakistan, India seek to nudge peace process”, The Boston Globe, 29 Sept. 2005.
• “Kashmir panel wants India-Pakistan to speed up talks”, AlertNet, 17 Sept. 2005.      
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

India and Pakistan agreed to swap hundreds of prisoners after 2-day talks as part of ongoing peace process. Indian PM Singh and Pakistani President Musharraf to meet 14 September on sidelines of UN summit in New York in first face-to-face talks since April. Singh announced would meet with moderate faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference for first time 5 September in Delhi. Pakistan tested cruise missile with 500 km range 11 August; did not notify Indian officials, claiming test notification agreement with India signed days earlier did not cover cruise missiles. Series of grenade attacks on Indian security forces in Sopor, north of Srinagar, wounded 14.

• “Singh to hold Kashmir talks”, BBC, 31 Aug. 2005.
• “Pakistan and India to swap prisoners”, International Herald Tribune (AP/AFP), 31 Aug. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian PM Manmohan Singh warned rising violence in Kashmir and 5 July Ayodhya shrine militant attacks (see India) could jeopardise peace talks. Security forces in Indian-administered Kashmir reportedly killed 13 infiltrators across Line of Control in Gulmarg region. Operations continued against militants in Gurez area. Srinagar car bomb, claimed by Hizbul Mujahideen militant group, killed 4 soldiers and civilian 20 July. Other incidents included 24-hour stand-off between militants and security forces in Srinagar ending with death of 2 militants 30 July. Indian security forces’ fatal shooting of 3 teenaged boys mistaken for militants sparked mass protests and 4-day strike Srinagar from 24 July. Indian and Pakistani experts to meet 5-6 August for third round talks on military issues and nuclear CBMs.

• “Musharraf reassures India on Kashmir militant camps”, AlertNet, 29 July 2005.
• “Discord threatens India-Pakistan overtures”, International Herald Tribune, 29 July 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Moderate faction of Kashmiri separatist Hurriyat Conference alliance (APHC) indicated desire to resume talks with Indian government after 2 week visit to Pakistan and talks with President Pervez Musharraf. But signs of disagreement among APHC leaders and counterparts in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on province’s future. Violence continued: 23 killed in separate car bombs 13, 24 June; other incidents included killing of 3 civilians in their home 30 June. Pakistan and India concluded round of talks on dam dispute 29 June - to have high-level contact early July at Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan (as observer nations).

• “India’s ‘no’ to Pakistan minister”, BBC, 24 June 2005.
• “Pakistan visit evokes mixed reactions”, South Asia Monitor, 17 June 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Report N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Upsurge of violence since resumption of bus route between India and Pakistan across Line Of Control. Militant attacks in Srinagar 11-12 May killed 4, injured 84, including many school children. Separatist leaders from Indian-held Kashmir agreed to Pakistan’s invitation to discuss future of region 2 June, though hardline faction of All Parties Hurriyat Conference refused to attend; 17 killed in clashes ahead of visit. Rise in militancy dampened hopes New Delhi would reduce troop numbers.

• “Kashmiri leaders set for historic Pakistan trip”, AlertNet, 31 May 2005.
• “India: 17 die in Kashmir violence ahead of separatists' visit to Pakistan”, ReliefWeb, 31 May 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Jubilation of Kashmiris on both sides of Line of Control as bus service, suspended since partition in 1947, resumed 7 April. Separatist groups attempted to intimidate passengers: attacked passengers’ housing in Srinagar; exploded landmines on route; and labelled those boarding bus “traitors”. Meeting between President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi 17 April resulted in joint statement calling peace process “irreversible”, promised to work towards “soft border” - opening meeting points for divided families and boosting trade and travel across frontier. At least 40 killed in separate clashes between militants and security forces. Head of largest militant group, Hizbul Mujahideen, reportedly ready for peace talks if invited by New Delhi.

• “Top terrorists fall to Indian guns”, Times of India, 29 Apr. 2005.
• “Peace 'irreversible'; India, Pakistan soften on Kashmir”, AlertNet, 18 Apr. 2005.
• “Hizb chief ready for talks 'if invited'”, Times of India, 16 Apr. 2005.
• “Fire and rain”, The Economist, 7 Apr. 2005. 
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

India/Pakistan normalisation process continued amid signs of Pakistani impatience over lack of progress over Kashmir and differences over U.S. sale of F-16s to Pakistan. Over 500 prisoners, mostly Gujarat fishermen, released by Pakistan, while New Delhi extended invitation to President Pervez Musharraf for 17 April cricket international and meeting with Indian PM Manmohan Singh. Srinagar/Muzaffarabad bus link due to start 7 April. Sporadic attacks by separatist militants (opposed to bus link) on security forces continued.India/Pakistan normalisation process continued amid signs of Pakistani impatience over lack of progress over Kashmir and differences over U.S. sale of F-16s to Pakistan. Over 500 prisoners, mostly Gujarat fishermen, released by Pakistan, while New Delhi extended invitation to President Pervez Musharraf for 17 April cricket international and meeting with Indian PM Manmohan Singh. Srinagar/Muzaffarabad bus link due to start 7 April. Sporadic attacks by separatist militants (opposed to bus link) on security forces continued.

• “Fueling South Asia's rivalry”, International Herald Tribune, 30 Mar. 2005.
• “Overcoming mistrust must to resolve Kashmir issue: India,” Dawn, 24 Mar. 2005.
• “Musharraf urges Kashmir solution,” BBC, 23 Mar. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri announced confidence-building measures after 16 February Islamabad talks, including bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad (to start 7 April) and agreement on cross-border Iran-India-Pakistan “peace pipeline”. Local elections held for first time in Jammu and Kashmir, voter turnout low due to separatist boycott calls. Some violence despite considerable security presence. Al-Mansurain militant group claimed responsibility for 24 February suicide attack on Srinagar government complex, killing 7.

• “All aboard?”, The Economist, 17 Feb. 2005.
• “LoC travel 'mother' of all CBMs”, Dawn, 16 Feb. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

India/Pakistan normalisation process stalled as Pakistan asked World Bank (broker of Indus Waters Treaty) to appoint neutral arbitrator to decide whether India’s construction of Baglihar hydro-power dam on Chenab river in Jammu and Kashmir should go ahead. Tensions rose across line of control after ceasefire violation accusations from both sides. Clashes between militants and Indian security forces continued. Indian foreign minister Natwar Singh to visit Pakistan 15 February.

• “Pakistani PM reaches out to India”, BBC, 31 Jan. 2005.
• “Peace flounders over water dispute”, Asia Times Online, 22 Jan. 2005.
• “Pakistan denies new Kashmir raid”, BBC, 21 Jan. 2005.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian and Pakistani officials met Islamabad 14-15 December to discuss confidence building measures related to nuclear and conventional arms - no formal agreement reached to notify each other of missile tests (practice currently followed informally). Foreign secretaries met 27-28 December with no sign of progress over Kashmir. Pakistan test-fired medium-range surface-to-surface “Hatf-IV Shaheen-I” missile 8 December. India tested surface-to-surface version of its supersonic “Brahmos” missile 21 December. Talks 7-8 December on emotive issue of bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad failed to reach agreement - discussions to continue. Spate of violence in run-up to talks left over 20 dead.

• “‘No progress’ in Kashmir talks”, BBC, 28 Dec. 2004.
• “Relations moving forward: Singh”, Dawn, 22 Dec. 2004.
• “Pakistan and India fail to finalise nuclear steps”, Reuters AlertNet, 15 Dec. 2004.
• For background, see Crisis Group Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

India began limited withdrawal of troops from Kashmir 17 November, citing fall in guerrilla violence. Indian PM Manmohan Singh visited Kashmir Valley same day, ruled out any redrawing of India's borders or further division of Kashmir as suggested by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in his (informal) October proposals. Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz met Singh New Delhi 24 November; agreed to continue talks. Eleven rebels and 3 Indian soldiers killed 6 November in several attacks, including grenade assault in Srinagar during visit by India's home minister Shivraj Patil. Kashmiri separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) repeated longstanding demand their leaders be allowed to go to Pakistan to meet separatist leaders before formal talks occur. Indian soldiers shot dead 5 militants 3 November after mosque siege 45 km south of Srinagar.

•  “South Asian PMs hold key meeting”, BBC, 24 Nov. 2004.
• “Manmohan's Kashmir dreams”, Asia Times Online, 19 Nov. 2004.
• “India announces troop reductions in Kashmir”, The Guardian, 12 Nov. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf made unexpected public calls for “rethink” on Kashmir; ideas included defining, demilitarising and changing status of areas of Pakistan- and Indian-administered sections of Kashmir and some form of joint India-Pakistan or U.N. control. Indian official reaction muted; received mixed reactions from domestic and Indian press. Talks between Pakistan and India on proposal to start bus link in Kashmir set for 7-8 December in New Delhi. Team of Pakistani journalists visited Indian-administered Kashmir 4-6 October for first time since 1947. Sporadic violence continued included killing of former Kashmir minister 21 October; suicide bomb attack on Indian army convoy 9 October, killing 5; and failed assassination attempt on Jammu and Kashmir opposition leader and former chief minister Farooq Abdullah. Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz to meet Indian PM Manmohan Singh in November in capacity as chairman of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Pakistan tested nuclear-capable “Hatf-V Ghauri” missile 12 October; India tested medium-range nuclear-capable “Prithvi-III” missile 27 October.

• “Need for progress in talks stressed: No change in Kashmir policy, says Aziz”, Dawn, 31 Oct. 2004.
• “India cool on Kashmir proposals”, BBC, 26 Oct. 2004.
• “Pakistan reporters reach Srinagar”, BBC, 6 Oct. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian PM Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf met for first time on sidelines of UN General Assembly in New York 24 September. Both leaders pledged commitment to dialogue. Foreign ministers previously met New Dehli 5-6 September; claimed modest progress, mainly on normalisation process. Major obstacles remain - Pakistan’s insistence on time frame for resolving dispute, India’s insistence Pakistan do more to stop cross-border infiltration of militants. Violent clashes continued, including incidents 18 September that killed 18.

• “'Historic' S Asia meeting hailed”, BBC, 24 Sept. 2004.
• “Indian, Pakistani leaders to meet in New York”, VOA, 23 Sept. 2004.
• “On Kashmir, hot air and trial balloons”, Asia Times Online, 23 Sept. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Clashes between separatists and security forces continued as talks between India and Pakistan stalled. India’s ruling Congress party repeatedly expressed disappointment over what it says is Islamabad’s failure to curb Kashmiri guerrillas. Ten killed – including Manzoorul Islam, head of Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen separatist group – during 19 August visit by Indian President Abdul Kalam to Jammu and Srinagar. Further violence killed at least 18 in separate incidents. Possible talks between Indian government and Kashmiri separatist All Parties Hurriyat (Freedom) Conference (APHC) faltered at outset as government insisted next round should take place “within” constitution: rejected by APHC.

• “Seven Jaish, Lashker militants killed in Kashmir”, South Asia Monitor”, 29 Aug. 2004.
• “Indo-Pak peace bid hits a bump”, The Times of India, 24 Aug. 2004.
• “To bring peace, focus on Kashmir’s people”, International Herald Tribune, 6 Aug. 2004. 
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Violence worsened in run-up to Indo-Pakistan peace talks; over 200 killed including numerous civilians. Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh met Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf 23 July. India expressed disappointment with Pakistani statement stressing “time-frame” for settling Kashmir dispute. Current round of talks to culminate in New Delhi foreign ministers’ meeting 5-6 September.

•  “Musharraf for giving up ‘maxima list’ positions”, Dawn, 25 July 2004.
• “Stranded at the bus stop”, Outlook India, Aug. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70 Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and  Learning from the Past,  4 Dec. 2003; and N°79 India/Pakistan Relations and Kashmir: Steps toward Peace, 24 June 2004.

Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries met 27-28 June to discuss nuclear confidence-building measures and Kashmir as part of ongoing peace process. Expert-level talks on nuclear CBMs in Islamabad 19-20 June and low-level and unscheduled talks between foreign ministers on sidelines of Asia Cooperation Dialogue conference in China 20-21 June resulted in renewed ban on nuclear tests, and agreement to set up hotline between foreign ministries and reopen Karachi, Mumbai consulates. Attacks on civilians, clashes between security forces and militants continued. Three separate grenade attacks in Pahalgam, Handwara and Kunzer killed 7; 1 attack claimed by little-known Al-Nasreen group. Twelve Muslims, including 4 children, killed in shooting 26 June. India’s interior minister indicated government likely to hold peace talks with Kashmiri separatists in July.

• “Kashmiris see peace hopes in India, Pakistan talks”, Reuters AlertNet, 29 June 2004.
• “Nuclear hotline to be set up: Pakistan, India to continue test ban”, Dawn, 21 June 2004.
• “Pakistan seeks speedy progress on Kashmir dispute”, Reuters AlertNet, 16 June 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

Separatist violence continued. Mine blast killed 33 Indian soldiers and relatives in Indian-administered Kashmir 23 May; claimed by Hizbul Mujahideen, who lost senior commander in clash in outskirts of Srinagar 11 May. Kashmir's main separatist alliance, All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), called strike in Srinagar to mark anniversaries of killings of key Muslim cleric and separatist leader. Top APHC leader Moulvi Umar Farooq targeted by militants in grenade attack. Farooq was part of January delegation for talks with former Indian PM; new talks due in July. New India PM Manmohan Singh vowed to act against militants and cooperate with Pakistan over disputed region.

• “New Indian govt to start Kashmir talks in July”, The Daily Times, 30 May 2004.
• “India's PM-elect focuses on Kashmir”, The Age, 21 May 2004.
• “India in Kashmir militant pledge”, BBC, 24 May 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

Indian elections held in Jammu and Kashmir marred by violence. Grenade attack on rally of ruling People's Democratic Party 8 April killed 11. At least 5 more killed in separate attacks in Srinagar. Kashmiri separatist politicians and rebels rejected election, called for poll boycott. Office of main opposition Congress Party attacked.

• "Poll boycott call frightens off voters in Kashmir", Reuters AlertNet, 26 Apr. 2004.
• "More election violence in Kashmir", BBC, 23 Apr. 2004.
• "Heavenly Kashmir is still mired in hell as a dirty war gets dirtier", The Guardian, 4 Apr. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

Fighting continued between Indian security forces and Kashmiri separatists with several incidents in and around Srinagar. Main separatist alliance, All Parties Hurriyat Conference, held second round of talks with Indian government March 27. Separatist group Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) and militants Hizbul Mujahideen urged Indian Kashmiri voters to boycott April elections.

•  “Musharraf sets Kashmir deadline”, BBC, 31 Mar, 2004.
• “Kashmir separatists accept new talks with India”, South Asia Monitor (AFP), 21 Mar. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

Promising developments in peace talks but violence continued between Indian troops and Kashmiri separatists; 7 killed in 20 February clash southeast of Srinagar; 17 killed 6 February in separate incidents. Pakistan urged militants to call ceasefire to allow diplomacy and peace talks to continue. United Jihad Council, umbrella organisation of different Kashmiri groups, split over ceasefire. Moderate faction of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference threatened to pull out of talks with Indian government over civilian deaths and allegations of human rights abuse.

• “Pakistan said seeking Kashmiri militant ceasefire”, Reuters AlertNet, 25 Feb. 2004.
• “Indian, Pakistani army commanders meet in Kashmir”, Reuters AlertNet, 23 Feb. 2004.
• “Kashmir negotiations are set for May”, International Herald Tribune, 19 Feb. 2004.
• “Your place or mine?”, The Economist, 12 Feb. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69, and 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

Breakthrough announcement of bilateral India-Pakistan 16-18 February talks after 6 January meeting between Indian PM Vajpayee and Pakistan’s President Musharraf. All Parties Hurriyat Conference (Kashmir separatist alliance) met Vajpayee in New Delhi 23 January and confirmed their commitment to peaceful resolution of Kashmir issue. Violence continued between hardline Kashmiri separatists and Indian forces. Grenade thrown by suspected militants at mosque in Jammu 8 January wounded 18. Separate clashes between Indian troops and Kashmiri militants claimed 3 soldiers, 22 militants including several separatists leaders. Pakistan proposed March talks to discuss bus service between Kashmir capitals Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, opposed by Kashmiri militants.

• “Five top rebels among 13 killed in Kashmir”, Reuters AlertNet, 30 Jan. 2004.
• “Kashmiri separatists back Indian PM's peace moves”, Reuters AlertNet, 23 Jan. 2004.
• “Kashmir's promise of peace”, The Washington Post, 22 Jan. 2004.
• “Peace in their sights”, The Guardian, 21 Jan. 2004.
• For background, see ICG Asia Reports N°s 68, 69 70, Kashmir: The View From Islamabad; The View From New Delhi; and Learning from the Past, 4 Dec. 2003.

In major policy shift, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf offered to drop longstanding demand for plebiscite, conditional on progress in talks with India on Kashmir. Foreign Minister Mahmood Ali Kasuri and Information Minister Sheikh Rasheed noted Pakistan continues to support plebiscite but would consider other options. Ceasefire along Line of Control (LOC) holding as normalisation steps continue. Both sides agreed to resume overflights, air and rail links from 1 January. India accelerating work on security fence along LOC, criticised by Musharraf. Ceasefire not supported by Kashmiri separatist groups, though violence reportedly has decreased: death toll since 26 November truce over 150. Indian PM Vajpayee confirmed attendance at January South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in Islamabad; not yet known whether bilateral negotiations on Kashmir will take place.

• “Pakistan would forgo Kashmir referendum”, The Washington Times, 19 Dec. 2003.
• “Kashmiri guerrilla leader rules out truce in Kashmir”, Reuters AlertNet, 15 Dec. 2003.

Hope tempered by scepticism as ceasefire on Line of Control (LOC) began midnight 26 November – first formal ceasefire since start of insurgency in 1989 but longer term significance remains to be seen. Pakistani PM Jamali announced unilateral ceasefire on LOC 23 November, one month after India’s surprise peace initiative proposing 12 concrete steps toward Indo-Pak normalisation. Indian offer included restoration of further transport links and renewal of sporting ties; but, crucially, no discussion on Kashmir itself. After stumbles over preconditions, Indian Deputy PM Advani ready for unconditional talks with All Party Hurriyat Conference (umbrella organisation for Kashmiri separatist groups). PM Vajpayee agreed to attend long-delayed SAARC regional summit in Islamabad in January 2004 but ruled out bilateral talks. Pakistan offered 30 November to allow direct overflights, banned since January 2002, opening way for full resumption of air links. Meanwhile violence continues unabated in the valley. Kashmiri rights groups reports that abuses by Indian security forces fuelling indigenous recruitment into extremist groups. Government sources estimate 40,000 casualties since 1989; separatists claim more than 80,000.

• “Kashmir ceasefire - will it last?”, BBC, 25 Nov. 2003.
• “Hurriyat conference offered unconditional talks”, Hindustan Times, 21 Nov. 2003.